Edition 14 - 25 October 2026
I hope you have had a good weekend! How is the weather we have had in Melbourne! Absolute bliss with the sunshine to the wet and rain all weekend. There will be plenty of lawn mowing ahead this week. Refinancing now accounts for a record share of broker lending, auction changes to the real estate industry here in Victoria and another RBA meeting is set for Melbourne Cup day, plenty going on this spring!
Talk Soon!
Adam Blumfield | Mortgage Broker
This Week…
Waiting for House Prices to fall further?
Don't just look at the interest rate
Property potential in Blackburn
Suburb Spotlight in Blackburn
Mortgage News
Waiting for House Prices to fall further? What First Home buyers should consider.
For many Australians looking to buy their first home, the decision to enter the property market has become increasingly difficult. Higher property prices, borrowing costs and the challenge of saving a deposit have left many prospective buyers wondering whether they should buy now or wait for a better opportunity.
Recent research from Westpac suggests many buyers are taking a cautious approach, with 75% of surveyed first home buyers reportedly waiting for property prices to fall further.
It's an understandable strategy. Nobody wants to buy a property only to see its value decline shortly afterwards. But waiting for the market to reach its lowest point can be more complicated than it sounds.
So, should first home buyers wait for prices to fall, or focus on preparing themselves to buy when the right opportunity comes along?
Can you really time the property market?
One of the biggest challenges for prospective buyers is knowing when the market has reached its bottom.
Property prices rarely move in a straight line, and conditions can vary considerably between suburbs, property types and price ranges. While one area may experience falling prices, another may remain relatively stable or attract stronger demand.
By the time a market recovery becomes clear, buyer confidence may have returned, bringing more competition for properties.
This creates a difficult balancing act. Waiting may provide an opportunity to save a larger deposit or benefit from lower prices, but it can also mean missing out on a property that would have suited your needs and budget.
There is no reliable way to predict exactly when prices will bottom out. Rather than trying to get the timing perfect, buyers may be better served by understanding their financial position and the conditions in the areas where they want to buy.
What if property prices fall further?
The possibility of further price falls is a legitimate consideration, particularly for buyers stretching their finances to enter the market.
A lower purchase price can mean a smaller loan, lower repayments and potentially more manageable upfront costs. For buyers who are still saving their deposit, waiting could also provide additional time to strengthen their financial position.
However, a falling market doesn't automatically make every property a good purchase.
The size of any price decline will depend on the location and type of property. Lending conditions, employment security, interest rates and individual household circumstances also influence whether buying is appropriate.
It's important to consider the possibility of further falls without assuming they are guaranteed.
What if prices don't fall as much as expected?
Waiting also comes with uncertainty.
If prices remain stable or begin increasing, buyers may find themselves needing a larger deposit to purchase the same property. In competitive areas, stronger buyer demand can also make negotiations more difficult.
For example, consider a property currently priced at $600,000.
If its price fell by 5%, it would be worth $570,000. That could represent a meaningful saving for a first-home buyer.
However, if the price instead increased by 5%, the same property would cost $630,000.
These figures are illustrations only, not forecasts of what property prices will do. They demonstrate why relying on a particular market outcome can be risky.
The important question is not simply whether prices will rise or fall. It's whether the property represents reasonable value and whether you can comfortably afford it.
Interest rates are only part of the equation
Property prices often receive the most attention, but interest rates also influence buying decisions.
Some buyers are waiting for interest rates to stabilise before committing to a mortgage. Others are concerned that higher repayments could put pressure on their household budget.
While interest rates matter, they shouldn't be considered in isolation.
Your deposit, income, existing debts, living expenses and the size of your proposed loan all influence your borrowing capacity and repayments.
It's also worth remembering that being approved for a particular loan amount doesn't necessarily mean borrowing the maximum is the right decision for you.
A sensible approach is to understand what your repayments could look like under different interest rate scenarios and leave enough room in your budget for unexpected expenses.
How first home buyers can use this time to prepare
If you're not ready to buy today, that doesn't mean you need to sit on the sidelines without a plan.
There are several practical steps you can take while monitoring the market.
1. Understand your borrowing capacity
Speak with a mortgage broker to understand how much you may be able to borrow based on your income, expenses, debts and deposit. This gives you a realistic starting point when assessing properties.
2. Review your deposit and upfront costs
Your deposit is only one part of the money you'll need. Consider conveyancing, inspections, moving expenses and any applicable government charges. Depending on your circumstances, you may also be eligible for stamp duty concessions or a government-backed deposit scheme.
3. Research the suburbs you're interested in
Look beyond broad headlines about the Australian property market. Compare recent sales, property types and local conditions in the areas where you would genuinely consider living.
4. Set a comfortable budget
Determine what you can afford without putting unnecessary pressure on your household finances. Consider how repayments would change if interest rates increased and whether you would still have an adequate financial buffer.
5. Understand your options
First home buyers may have access to government assistance, including eligible deposit schemes and state based concessions. Understanding the relevant eligibility criteria can help you establish whether buying is more achievable than you initially thought.
6. Be ready, but don't rush
Getting your finances organised and understanding the market puts you in a stronger position if a suitable property becomes available. However, preparation shouldn't become pressure to buy before you're financially or personally ready.
So, should you wait or buy now?
There is no single answer that suits every first home buyer.
Waiting may make sense if you need more time to save, reduce debt, improve your financial position or find a property that fits your budget.
Buying may make sense if you've built a sufficient financial buffer, understand the risks, plan to stay in the property for a reasonable period and find a home that represents good value for your circumstances.
Neither decision guarantees a better financial outcome.
Rather than trying to predict the exact bottom of the market, focus on making an informed decision based on your finances, your goals and the property you're considering.
The bottom line
The property market will always have uncertainty. Prices can rise, fall or remain relatively stable, and conditions can differ significantly from one suburb to another.
For first home buyers, the most useful step may not be predicting what the market will do next. It's understanding what you can afford, knowing what support may be available and preparing to act when the right opportunity comes along.
You don't need to buy at the absolute bottom of the market to make a sound property decision. You need a purchase that makes sense for your circumstances and a mortgage that remains manageable over the long term.
Thinking about buying your first home?
At Redlend Home Loans, we help first home buyers understand their borrowing options, explore suitable lending strategies and prepare for the purchase process.
If you're considering buying in the coming months, getting an understanding of your finances now can help you make a more informed decision when the time is right.
Get in touch with Redlend Home Loans to discuss your options.
Mortgage Tip
Don't just look at the interest rate
When comparing home loans, look beyond the advertised rate. Offset accounts, annual fees, redraw facilities and restrictions on extra repayments can all affect how useful a loan is for you.
The lowest rate isn't always the best fit, it's about finding a loan that suits your needs and how you manage your money.
A little comparison upfront can make a big difference over the life of your loan.
Property Spotlight
Blackburn - Victoria
Classic Charm in Leafy Blackburn
Sometimes, a property's appeal comes down to a combination of practical living spaces, an established neighbourhood and a location that makes everyday life a little easier.
This week's property spotlight takes us to Blackburn, in Melbourne's eastern suburbs, where this three bedroom home at 1 Luke Avenue offers a blend of classic character, comfortable living and outdoor entertaining.
With an advertised price guide of $900,000–$960,000, the home presents an option for buyers looking for an established property in a well connected eastern suburb.
Set on approximately 383 square metres, the single level home features three bedrooms and one bathroom, with a layout that prioritises comfortable, practical living.
Inside, polished timber floors and a light filled living room create a welcoming feel. The separate kitchen and meals area includes white cabinetry, gas cooking, a wall oven and dishwasher, with direct access to a generous outdoor deck.
That connection between the kitchen and outdoor entertaining area is a useful feature for anyone who enjoys having friends and family over without needing an expansive backyard.
The home also includes gas ducted heating, evaporative cooling and split system air conditioning in the main bedroom, helping provide comfort throughout the seasons.
Two bedrooms have built in robes, while the central bathroom features a corner spa bath. A separate toilet, full laundry, garden shed and single carport round out the practical features.
Why Blackburn?
Blackburn has long appealed to buyers looking for an established suburban lifestyle with access to transport, schools, shopping and green spaces.
The property is positioned near Cootamundra Walk, with Blackburn Primary School and Blackburn High School nearby. The listing also identifies the property as being within the Blackburn High School zone, which is worth independently confirming with the relevant school before making a purchase decision.
Blackburn Station, local cafés and Blackburn Square provide convenient options for commuting, shopping and everyday errands. The Eastern Freeway also offers road access towards Melbourne and surrounding suburbs.
For buyers who value established streets, nearby parkland and access to local amenities, Blackburn is worth considering.
Who might this property suit?
With three bedrooms, a single level layout and manageable outdoor areas, this home could appeal to:
First-home buyers looking for an established home in Melbourne's east.
Young families who value nearby schools, parks and local amenities.
Downsizers seeking a single level property with outdoor entertaining space.
Buyers prioritising location who would prefer an established home over a newer property further from established services.
As with any property, buyers should assess the layout, condition, land size and likely ongoing costs against their own needs and budget.
A property purchase isn't just about finding a home you like. It's also about understanding what you can comfortably afford and structuring your finance around your broader plans.
For a property in this price range, buyers should consider their deposit, purchase costs, expected repayments and the funds they'll have remaining after settlement.
It's also worth getting your borrowing capacity assessed early, rather than relying solely on an online repayment calculator or an advertised property price.
The right home is one that works for your lifestyle and your finances.
Redlend Home Loans can help you understand your borrowing options, explore suitable loan structures and prepare for the buying process.
Get in touch to discuss your home loan plans.
Here is what the numbers could look like…
Approximate numbers for general information only, this is not financial advice and individual circumstances will vary.
Assume a Sale @ $960,000
A Deposit @ 20% = $192,000
Stamp Duty & Government Fees @ $55,150
Conveyancing & Building Pest Inspection @ $3000
Savings or equity Required $250,150
Monthly Repayments @ $4855
Based on 6.5% Interest Rate, 30 years, Principal & Interest
Suburb Spotlight
Blackburn
Located around 16 km east of Melbourne's CBD, Blackburn is an established suburb known for its leafy streets, family homes, local schools and access to public transport.
Blackburn's property market offers a mix of established houses, townhouses and units, catering to different budgets and buyer needs.
Median house price: Approximately $1.35 million–$1.57 million
Median unit price: Approximately $620,000–$743,000
Median house rent: Around $730–$740 per week
Median unit rent: Around $550–$600 per week
Blackburn offers a balance of suburban living and convenience, with Blackburn Station providing rail access to the CBD. Residents also benefit from local shopping and cafés, established schools and green spaces such as Blackburn Lake Sanctuary.
The suburb's established character and range of property types make it worth considering for families, professionals and buyers looking to secure a home in Melbourne's eastern suburbs.
Blackburn remains a suburb worth watching for buyers who value location, established amenities and a leafy residential setting. With a substantial price difference between houses and units, understanding your budget and comparing similar properties is key.
Whether you're buying your first home, upgrading or investing, getting your finance strategy sorted early can help you understand your options.
Property data supplied by Cotality. Figures current as at 25 October 2026 and provided for general information only, not personal financial or property advice. If you would like your own free property report, please email me below.
Request a Free Property Report
Lets Talk Property
Whether you're buying your first home, refinancing, investing or just looking for some guidance, I'm always happy to have a conversation.
No pressure. No obligation. Just honest advice to help you make informed property decisions.
